Thoughts…

Interesting snippit from this morning’s Area Forecast Discussion from Portland:

LEFT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IN PLACE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT
TERM FROM THE EVENING SHIFT AS MUCH OF THIS SHIFT WAS SPENT FINE
TUNING THE DETAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.... NO DOUBT THIS IS AN
HISTORIC COLD AIR MASS. WHICH BRINGS US TO OUR NEXT FORECAST
CHALLENGE...THE PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED FROM OUR NEXT EVENT.
CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS...IT
IS VERY HARD TO BELIEVE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
ERODE THE COLD AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL SCOUR
OUT QUICKLY...AND OUR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST
REFLECTS THAT ALL THE WAY INTO THURSDAY. WEAGLE

Historically models, the National Weather Service, TV meteorologists (myself included), etc., have tended to warm it up too fast following a cold outbreak. Good to see the above caution in this morning’s discussion.

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